Econometric Modeling of Investment Assessment on Investment Capacity Distribution by key Capital (Republic of Uzbekistan)

Authors

  • Bayhonov Bahodirjon Tursunbaevich
  • Qorabayev Shuxratjon Axmadjonovich

Abstract

In the current globalization, investment in the world economy leads to a decrease in production capacity and lower investment efficiency due to uncertainties and risks associated with effective use of investments. In this regard, the main trend in comprehensive analysis of factors affecting investment efficiency is the issue of proper allocation of investments between the manufacturing and services sectors to predict problems in this area, to develop scientifically-grounded measures to enhance global competitiveness and sustainable growth.An effective solution of these tasks requires the improvement of scientific and methodological bases of econometric modeling of the direction and allocation of investments in the economy through the active investment policy aimed at the implementation of investment projects on modernization, technical and technological renovation of production, development of production and social infrastructure.Determination of efficiency, risk and investment risk using the 5-point scale estimation method such as "Very bad", "Bad", "Average", "Good", "Very good" based on the theory of uncertain aggregate allocation of investments. a system of models has been developed. Also, in order to achieve more precision in the cross-sectoral allocation of investments, linear and logarithmic normal distribution was performed using formulas that allow this process to be performed in the computer technology EXCEL. Another advantage of the developed function is that it simultaneously reflects not only the distribution of investment, but also the percentage of production volume.This, in turn, helps to draw conclusions on the distribution of investments across sectors and the effective use of investments, as well as the development of investment programs. In this context, the author provides recommendations for improving the efficiency and efficient use of investments in the leading sectors of the economy.

 Purpose - Development of theoretical-methodological and practical recommendations and recommendations on improving methodology of econometric modeling of intersectoral distribution of investments in the economy of Uzbekistan.

 Design/methodology/approach -The equation models for the assessment of the research used statistical data on the volume and distribution of investment allocated to the economic sectors of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

 Findings–An analysis of the allocation of investments based on the theory of unconventional collections and its application in practice leads to the reliability of the decision making.

 Originality/value  - The relevance of the approaches and methods used in the research is determined by the validity of econometric and mathematical methods, the reliability of statistical data based on the data of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan and other officially published data, and the relevant conclusions.

 Keywords: investment, interest rate, division, theory of indefinite cumulative, chargeability function, econometric model

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Published

2019-12-09

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Articles